This paper examines financial professionals' overconfidence in their forecasting performance. We are the first to compare individual financial professionals' self-ratings with their true forecasting performance. Data spans several years at monthly frequency. The forecasters in our sample do not...

This report presents the results of a series of baseline population and urban growth projections for California's 38 urban counties through the year 2100. Presented in map and table form, these projections are based on extrapolations of current population trends and recent urban development...

This paper simulates the increase in the average annual loss from tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic for the years 2015 and 2050. The simulation is based on assumptions concerning wealth trends in the regions affected by the storms, considered by the change in material assets (capital...

We provide the description and illustrative results of the World Gas Model, a multi-period complementarity model for the global natural gas market. Market players include producers, traders, pipeline and storage operators, LNG liquefiers and regasifiers as well as marketers. The model data set...

Forecasting errors pose a serious problem of identification, often neglected in empirical applications. Any attempt of estimating choice models under uncertainty may lead to severely biased results in the presence of forecasting errors even when individual expectations on future events are...

Verschiedene Faktoren bewirken eine Zunahme der Altersarmut in Deutschland, insbesondere in Ostdeutschland. Mit Daten des Sozio-oekonomischen Panel (SOEP) untersuchen wir Ursachen und Ausmaß der Altersarmut in Deutschland. Wir beginnen mit einer Querschnittsregression zur Bestimmung der...

The present paper compares expected inflation to (econometric) inflation forecasts based on a number of forecasting techniques from the literature using a panel of ten industrialized countries during the period of 1988 to 2007. To capture expected inflation we develop a recursive filtering...

In this paper we develop a small open economy model explaining the joint determination of output, inflation, interest rates, unemployment and the exchange rate in a multi-country framework. Our model - the Halle Economic Projection Model (HEPM) - is closely related to studies recently published...