The paper estimates two time-varying parameter models of Chilean inflation: a Phillips curve model and a small open economy model. Their out-of-sample forecasts are compared with those of simple Box-Jenkins models. The main findings are: forecasts that include the pre-announced inflation target...

The U.S. Federal Reserve responded to the great recession by reducing policy rates to the effective lower bound. In order to provide further monetary stimulus, they subsequently conducted large-scale asset purchases, quadrupling their balance sheet in the process. We assess the international...

I estimate the transmission of a common euro area monetary policy shock across individual euro area economies. To do so, I develop a global VAR model in which all euro area economies are included individually while, at the same time, their common monetary policy is modelled as a function of euro...

This paper characterizes the transmission mechanism of monetary shocks across countries of the euro area, documents how this mechanism has changed with the introduction of the euro, and explores some potential explanations. The factor-augmented VAR (FAVAR) framework used is sufficiently rich to...

This paper looks at the history of money and its modern form from a scientific and mathematical point of view. The approach here is to emphasize simplicity. A straightforward model and algebraic formula for a large economy analogous to the ideal gas law of thermodynamics is proposed. It may be...

This research paper has attempted to analyze the nature of the leverage exerted by the inflation targeting (IT) policy on the pass-through effect in emerging countries. In other words, we tried to answer to the question of whether a climate of low inflation in these countries through the...

Potential Output is a key factor for debt sustainability analysis and for developing strategies for growth, but unfortunately it is an unobservable variable. Using three methodologies (production function, switching, and state-space), this paper computes potential output for CAPDR countries...

Financial stability discussions have mainly revolved around the degree of leverage in financial institutions. Yet, some authors have argued that there might be mechanisms associated with unleveraged institutions that could entail financial instability. We aim to shed light on the possible...

Financial stability discussions have mainly revolved around the degree of leverage in financial institutions. Yet, some authors have argued that there might be mechanisms associated with unleveraged institutions that could entail financial instability. We aim to shed light on the possible...

Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht, wie sich Angebots-, Nachfrage- und geldpolitische Schocks aus den Vereinigten Staaten auf Deutschland übertragen. Dabei wird ein so genanntes factor-augmented vector autoregressive model (FAVAR) auf einen neu zusammengestellten Datensatz mit mehr als 200...