This paper proposes a measure of real-time inflation expectations based on metadata, i.e., data about data, constructed from internet search queries performed on the search engine Google. The forecasting performance of the Google Inflation Search Index (GISI) is assessed relative to 37 other...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the...

The main focus of this paper is to measure the speed of adjustment of the exchange rate by means of the persistent profile approach developed by Pesaran and Shin (1996) to examine the symmetry and proportionality assumptions of the purchasing power parity (PPP) theory of exchange rates for the...

We propose a test for the evaluation of statistical acceptability of a functional constraint which is imposed on parameters in the mixed data sampling regressions. The asymptotic behavior of the test statistic is characterized and a few other extensions are discussed.

This study seeks to generate the forecasts for the small scale industrial sector of West Bengal for the ensuing decade till 2019-20. Forecasts have been generated for production, direct employment, capital formation and number of units in this sector. Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average...

We propose a parametric state space model with accompanying estimation and forecasting framework that combines long memory and level shifts by decomposing the underlying process into a simple mixture model and ARFIMA dynamics. The Kalman filter is used to construct the likelihood function after...

When estimating the parameters of a process, researchers can choose the reference unit of time (unit period) for their study. Frequently, they set the unit period equal to the observation interval. However, I show that decoupling the unit period from the observation interval facilitates the...

El objetivo de este documento es presentar un conjunto de alternativas metodológicas paraestimar el producto interno bruto potencial mediante la aplicación de cincos metodologías,entre las cuales podemos citar: un modelo VAR estructural con restricciones de largo plazotipo Blanchard y Quah,...

The globalisation on financial markets and the development of financial derivatives has increased not only chances but also potential risk within the banking industry. Especially market risk has gained major significance since market price variation of interest rates, stocks or exchange rates...