We test for state-dependent bias in the European Central Bank's inflation projections. We show that the ECB tends to underpredict when the observed inflation rate at the time of forecasting is higher than an estimated threshold of 1.8%. The bias is most pronounced at intermediate forecasting...

This study examines the impact of remittance inflows on the economic growth of Nepal using annual time series data spanning from 1993 to 2020. Moreover, it investigates the moderating role of institutional quality in this relationship. The analysis adopts the bound test approach of the...

In recent times, Sraffian Supermultiplier Model (SSM) (Freitas & Serrano, 2015; Serrano, 1995; Serrano et al., 2019) has become prominent in both theoretical and empirical discussions within the demand-led-growth framework. The SSM has three distinctive features: the rate of growth of output is...

We forecast economic activity in Argentina on a quarterly real-time basis using dynamic factors models (DFM) (Blanco et al. 2018) and evaluate their forecasting performance during the COVID19 pandemic of 2020. We compare the results of forecasts based on a pre-pandemic estimation of the...

In recent times, Sraffian Supermultiplier Model (SSM) (Freitas & Serrano, 2015; Serrano, 1995; Serrano et al., 2019) has become prominent in both theoretical and empirical discussions within the demand-led-growth framework. The SSM has three distinctive features: the rate of growth of output is...

We forecast economic activity in Argentina on a quarterly real-time basis using dynamic factors models (DFM) (Blanco et al. 2018) and evaluate their forecasting performance during the COVID19 pandemic of 2020. We compare the results of forecasts based on a pre-pandemic estimation of the...

abstracts This article examines the causal relationship between stock indices and cryptocurrencies during the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. The econometric investigation covers the period from February 24, 2022 to April 12, 2023, and focuses on seven stock market indices (S&P 500, DAX, CAC40,...

Motivated by the persistent fall in oil prices due to incessant uncertainty-inducing events in recent years, this study empirically examined if economic growth in Africa's top five oil exporters (Algeria, Angola, Egypt, Libya, and Nigeria) is responding asymmetrically to changes in global...

Purpose - The last decades have experienced increasingly integrated global political and economic dynamics ranging especially from the influence of exchange rates and trade amid other sources of uncertainties. The purpose of this study is to examine the exchange rate dynamics of Brazil, Russia,...

Using an impact evaluation methodology for interrupted time-series and the IDB Pension Projection Model, this study estimates that the COVID-19 pandemic could have notably effects on the private pension system in El Salvador as a consequence of the relaxation of requirements to repay early...