Two model averaging approaches are used and compared in estimating and forecasting dynamic factor models, the well-known BMA and the recently developed WALS. Both methods propose to combine frequentist estimators using Bayesian weights. We apply our framework to the Armenian economy using...

This paper explores how fiscal and monetary policy interact if commitment and access to lump-sum taxation are limited. We analyze how equilibrium outcomes for inflation, employment, and public spending are affected by the structural features of an economy, such as money holdings, outstanding...

This paper explores how decentralized, national fiscal policies interact with a common monetary policy in a monetary union. We show that fiscal policy plays a more important ro le in stabilizing country-specific shocks than with national monetary policies. Whereas monetary u nification with an...

Using laboratory experiments within a New Keynesian macro framework, we explore the formation of inflation expectations and its interaction with monetary policy design. The central question in this paper is how to design monetary policy in the environment characterized by heterogeneous...

This paper analyzes some pros and cons of a monetary union for the ASEAN1 countries, excluding Myanmar. We estimate a stylized open-economy dynamic general equilibrium model for the ASEAN countries. Using the framework of linear quadratic differential games, we contrast the potential gains or...

In this paper we incorporate the term structure of interest rates in a standard inflation forecast targeting framework.We find that under flexible inflation targeting and uncertainty in the degree of persistence in the economy, allowing for active learning possibilities has e®ects on the...

If monetary policy is to aim at financial stability, how would it change? To analyze this question, this paper develops a general-form model with endogenous bank risk profiles. Policy rates affect both bank incentives to search for yield and the cost of wholesale funding. Financial stability...

Central banks have become increasingly transparent during the last decade. One of the main bene ts of transparency predicted by theoreticalmodels is that it enhances the credibility, reputation, and exibility of monetary policy, which suggests that increased transparency should result in lower...