A growing body of literature confirms the significance of the commodity futures basis factor: It has a significantly positive premium and it explains the cross-section of commodity-futures excess returns. We extend the literature by documenting predictive relation between this factor and the...

Inspired by the recent literature on rare events and their impact on asset prices, we investigate the return predictability properties of a set of variables related to the risk of tail events extracted from equity market information and measures based on credit spreads. Our variables outperform...

In this paper we provide new evidence on the predictability of aggregate stock market returns, and new time series of the expected excess returns on common stocks. We extract aggregate discount rate news from equity portfolio returns and use this information to construct estimates of expected...

We show empirically that survey-based measures of expected inflation are significant and strong predictors of future aggregate stock returns in several industrialized countries both in-sample and out-of-sample. By empirically discriminating between competing sources of this return predictability...

We document that a theoretically founded, real-time, and easy-to-implement option-based measure, termed synthetic-stock difference (SSD), accurately estimates the part of stock's expected return arising from stock's transaction costs. We calculate SSD for U.S. optionable stocks. SSD can be more...

We examine the predictive power of the CDS-bond basis for future corporate bond returns. We find that residual basis, the part of the CDS-bond basis that cannot be explained by a wide range of market frictions such as counterparty risk, funding risk, and liquidity risk, strongly negatively...

Recent theoretical work suggests that signs of asset returns are predictable given that their volatilities are. This is the first paper to investigate whether the demand for information, approximated by the daily internet search volume index (SVI) from Google, can enhance volatility forecasts...

The literature on stock return predictability has identified macroeconomic and technical predictors that when combined, leads to out-of-sample outperformance relative to the historical mean null. This paper investigates a new method for aggregating information beyond using forecast combination...

This paper addresses the role of technical analysis as potential investment tool for individual retail investors by analysing 2,165 daily forecasts on the DAX between 2015 and 2016. My results suggest that technical analysis may generally provide helpful information to retail investors since its...