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This paper provides a novel approach to forecasting time series subject to discrete structural breaks. We propose a Bayesian estimation and prediction procedure that allows for the possibility of new breaks over the forecast horizon, taking account of the size and duration of past breaks (if...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276180
This paper provides a review of linear panel data models with slope heterogeneity, introduces various types of random coefficients models and suggest a common framework for dealing with them. It considers the fundamental issues of statistical inference of a random coefficients formulation using...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276181
, and as predicted by the theory, quite robust to the presence of unit roots and structural breaks. The use of the CD test …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276182
An essential ingredient in models of career concerns is ex ante uncertainty about an agent's type. This paper shows how career concerns can arise even in the absence of any such ex ante uncertainty, if the unobservable actions that an agent takes influence his future productivity. By...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276186
This paper develops a statistically unbiased and simple method for measuring the difference of independent empirical distributions estimated by bootstrapping or other simulation approaches. This complete combinatorial method is compared with other unbiased and biased methods that have been...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276193
This paper considers the implications of the permanent/transitory decomposition of shocks for identification of structural models in the general case where the model might contain more than one permanent structural shock. It provides a simple and intuitive generalization of the influential work...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276205
In a group of countries like the European Union all countries seek to achieve their national CO2 emissions target by a joint emissions trading scheme covering some part of their economies (trading sector) and by a national emissions tax in the rest of their economies (nontrading sector)....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276207
The theory of tax smoothing and determination of public debt with uncertain future national income is extended for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276208
In this paper we discuss tests for residual cross section dependence in nonlinear panel data models. The tests are based on average pair-wise residual correlation coefficients. In nonlinear models, the definition of the residual is ambiguous and we consider two approaches: deviations of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276209
In an integrated dynamic general equilibrium model of the economy and the ecosystem humans and wildlife species compete for land and prey biomass. We introduce a competitive allocation mechanism in both submodels such that economic prices and ecosystem prices guide the allocation in the economy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276210