The Federal Reserve's large scale asset purchases (LSAP) of agency debt, MBSs and long-term U.S. Treasuries not only reduced long-term U.S. bond yields also significantly reduced long-term foreign bond yields and the spot value of the dollar. These changes were much too large to have been...

We study abstract macroeconomic systems in which expectations play an important role. Consistent with the recent literature on recursive learning and expectations, we replace the agents in the economy with econometricians. Unlike the recursive learning literature, however, the econometricians in...

Motivated by the common finding that linear autoregressive models often forecast better than models that incorporate additional information, this paper presents analytical, Monte Carlo, and empirical evidence on the effectiveness of combining forecasts from nested models. In our analytics, the...

Address before the Tucson Chapter of the Association for Investment Management Research (AIMR), Tuscon, Ariz., Nov. 14, 2003

Presentation to the Southern Illinois University at Edwardsville, Third Annual Rutman Lecture, Edwardsville, Ill., April 10, 2003

Presentation to the First Annual Missouri Economics Conference, University of Missouri-Columbia - May 4, 2001

National Association of Business Economics Annual Meeting, Boston, Sept. 11, 2006

Presentation to the Risk Management Association, Memphis - Jan. 18, 2001

Milton Friedman Luncheon, University of Missouri-Columbia, Columbia, Mo., July 31, 2007

Presentation to the Noonday Club Meeting, St. Louis - Dec. 2, 1999