The aggregate production function approach is one way to forecast future energy demand (a step in forecasting carbon dioxide emissions, for example) and to analyze the aggregate economic effects of measures such as the increase of taxes on energy use. The results of such an approach tend to...

This paper parametrically obtains estimates of persistence in output using Pandit's (1977, 1982) Data Dependent Systems approach for modeling autoregressive and moving average processes. The estimates are based on over a century of annual data for the rate of change of output in nine...

This paper serves as a partial introduction to and survey of the literature on Markov-switching models. We review the history of this class of models, describe their mathematical structure, and exposit the basic ideas behind estimation and inference. The paper also describes how the approach can...

This paper tests the hypothesis that the time-series process of income inequality has experienced a structural break. The timing of the structural break is treated as an unknown parameter to be estimated from the data because it is not possible to associate a single episodic policy event with...

This paper expresses econometric qualms about M. D. Bordo and L. Jonung's (1981) analysis of long-run volocity. They did not recognize that, for U.S. and Canadian data, the log of velocity has a unit root. Hence, estimation of a log-level regression may produce spurious regressions. When Bordo...

This paper provides a formal test of the null hypothesis of a unit root in the log-level of labor productivity against the alternative of linear trend stationarity with a one-time structural break in the level and slope of the trend at an a priori unknown date. Using some newly developed time...