This paper investigates the relevance of the No-Ponzi game condition for public debt (i.e. the public debt growth rate has to be lower than the real interest rate) and the transversality condition for the GDP growth rate (i.e. the GDP growth rate has to be lower than the real interest rate)....

In this paper, we analyze the relationship between certain characteristics of incumbent central bank governors and their interest-rate-setting behavior. We focus on (i) occupational backgrounds, (ii) party affiliation, and (iii) experience in office and estimate augmented Taylor rules for 20...

In this paper we systematically evaluate how central banks respond to deviations from the inflation target. We present a stylized New Keynesian model in which agents' inflation expectations are sensitive to deviations from the inflation target. To (re-) establish credibility, monetary policy...

We quantify the impact of explicit FOMC policy rate guidance used as an unconventional monetary policy tool at the zero lower bound of the policy rate on US equity prices, as well as on the risk indicators of credit and CDS spreads, implied volatilities and US equity index risk reversals. We...

Presentation to community leaders, Salt Lake City, Utah, November 2, 2012

Presentation to Portland community leaders, Portland, OR. July 12, 2012

Presentation to Seattle-Area community leaders, Bellevue, WA, June 6, 2012

The identification of central banks (CBs) behavior in setting interest rates may give a conclusive image on both the objectives and on their prioritization. A standard approach in this respect is the estimation of a CB reaction function as a Taylor rule. Since the formulation of the original...

Several empirical studies have suggested that the Bundesbank has pursued inflation targets rather than monetary targets. We find that, in the period from 1979 III to 1998 IV, changes in adjusted monetary base growth reacted negatively and significantly to deviations from target monetary...

This paper scrutinizes the debate of Keynes and Hayek concerning the adequate re- sponse to economic crises from a historical perspective. In a first step the develop- ment of the Keynesian economic theory, its ascent during the Great Depression and its use during financially sound times is...