This paper builds a general test of contagion in financial markets based on bivariate correlation analysis - a test that can be interpreted as an extension of the normal correlation theorem. Contagion is defined as a structural break in the data generating process of rates of return. Using a...

The paper discusses some widely used methods for estimating output gaps based on aggregated datafor the Euro-zone. Though these methods exhibit some common features, an empirical comparisondemonstrates that the various techniques differ substantially. In particular, the correlation of output...

The paper introduces the model confidence set (MCS) and applies it to the selection of forecasting models. An MCS is a set of models that is constructed so that it will contain the "best" forecasting model, given a level of confidence. Thus, an MCS is analogous to a confidence interval for a...

This paper proposes a new semi-nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation method for estimating production functions. The method extends the literature on structural estimation of production functions, started by the seminal work of Olley and Pakes (1996), by relaxing the scalar-unobservable...

In diesem Aufsatz wird die nichtparametrische Autoregression auf die Prognose von Quantilen angewendet. Verfahren der Kernregression werden benutzt, um zu autoregressiven Quantiisschätzern zu gelangen. Da die üblichen Maße zur Beurteilung der Prognose, wie etwa der mittlere quadratische...

In econometric modelling the choice of relevant variables is of crucial importance for the Interpretation of the results. In many cases it is based on some a priori knowledge from economic theory and a rather heuristic procedure for determining other influential variables sometimes based on an...

Many important economic problems require measures of physical and R&D capital. Except for some recent studies, there have been relatively few contributions in the literature that provide econometric estimates for the depreciation rates of physical and R&D capital. One reason for the relative...

In this contribution a nonparametric estimator for the hazard function will be presented for time-discrete survival analysis. The estimator is derived from a likelihood function based upon time-discrete counting processes. With martingale techniques asymptotic properties of the estimator of the...

Reliable estimates of variances and covariances are crucial for portfolio management and risk controlling. This paper investigates alternative methods to estimate time varying variance-covariance matrices: ordinary estimates and exponentially weighted moving averages in comparison to Markov...