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We document strong U.S. stock and bond return predictability from several macroeconomic volatility series before 1982. Return predictability declined significantly during the Great Moderation in the post-1982 sample. Our empirical finding is robust to out-of-sample "real time" forecasts in terms...
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We perform a comprehensive examination of the recursive, comparative predictive performance of a number of linear and non-linear models for UK stock and bond returns. We estimate Markov switching, threshold autoregressive (TAR), and smooth transition autoregressive (STR) regime switching models,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014190297
We perform a comprehensive examination of the recursive, comparative predictive performance of a number of linear and non-linear models for UK stock and bond returns. We estimate Markov switching, threshold autoregressive (TAR), and smooth transition autoregressive (STR) regime switching models,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136656
We propose a new time-varying peaks over threshold model to study tail risk dynamics in equity markets: the laws of …-sorted decile stock portfolios and show that large firm tail risk increases during recessions more than small firms tail risk. Our … risk shocks on the economy. A measure of tail connectedness is proposed: evidence from international equity markets shows …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012972558
) risk premia in different frequency ranges. To achieve the identification, I employ the long-run projections and the … consumption risk premia in different frequency bands. I then perform the method on the US data across different asset classes. My …
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