We review the total allocations under the EU ETS first phase and compare these against historical emissions, projections, and national Kyoto targets. We conclude that most Phase 1 allocations are excessive on all these measures, particularly the last, and argue that this is potentially damaging...

This Commentary sets out four lines of evidence to argue both that emission forecasts are intrinsically <italic>uncertain</italic>, and that there is clear evidence of <italic>projection inflation</italic> in the forecasts of sector emissions used to underpin the setting of sector caps in emission trading systems. From a limited...

We compare the national allocation plans (NAPs), proposed and submitted by EU Member States as of October 2006, with our estimations for CO₂ emissions by the installations covered by these NAPs. The collective allocations proposed under phase II NAPs exceed the historic trend of emissions...