This paper investigates the forecasting performance of the non-linear time series SETAR model by using Canadian GDP data from 1965 to 2000. Besides the within-sample fit, the forecasting performance of a standard linear ARIMA model for the same sample has also been generated for comparative...

type="main" <p>This article charts and explains the rising authority of the People's Bank of China (PBC) within the steep hierarchy of the party state. The PBC‘s rise is explained by using a version of historical institutionalism which focuses on the dialectical or mutually shaping relationships...</p>

We derive expressions for the first-order bias of the MLE for a Poisson regression model and show how these can be used to adjust the estimator and reduce bias without increasing MSE. The analytic results are supported by Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical application.

In this study we suggest a Bayesian approach to fuzzy clustering analysis – the Bayesian fuzzy regression. Bayesian Posterior Odds analysis is employed to select the correct number of clusters for the fuzzy regression analysis. In this study, we use a natural conjugate prior for the...

In this paper we investigate the impact of data revisions on forecasting and model selection procedures. A linear ARMA model and nonlinear SETAR model are considered in this study. Two Canadian macroeconomic time series have been analyzed: the real-time monetary aggregate M3 (1977-2000) and...

In this paper we investigate the forecasting performance of the non-linear time series SETAR model by using Canadian GDP data from 1965 to 2000. Besides the with-in-sample fit, the forecasting performance of a standard linear ARIMA model for the same sample has also been generated for...

We derive analytic expressions for the biases, to O(n-1) of the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the generalized Pareto distribution. Using these expressions to bias-correct the estimators is found to be extremely effective in terms of bias reduction, and generally results in...

There is now an extensive empirical literature relating to tests for various forms of convergence between the real per capita outputs of different countries. The evidence from these tests is mixed, and depends upon the type of data used, the countries in question, and the sample period in...

In this study we suggest a Bayesian approach to fuzzy clustering analysis – the Bayesian fuzzy regression. Bayesian Posterior Odds analysis is employed to select the correct number of clusters for the fuzzy regression analysis. In this study, we use a natural conjugate prior for the...