This paper investigates the forecasting performance of the non-linear time series SETAR model by using Canadian GDP data from 1965 to 2000. Besides the within-sample fit, the forecasting performance of a standard linear ARIMA model for the same sample has also been generated for comparative...

We derive analytic expressions for the biases, to O(n-1) of the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the generalized Pareto distribution. Using these expressions to bias-correct the estimators is found to be extremely effective in terms of bias reduction, and generally results in...

The Lomax (Pareto II) distribution has found wide application in a variety of fields. We analyze the second-order bias of the maximum likelihood estimators of its parameters for finite sample sizes, and show that this bias is positive. We derive an analytic bias correction which reduces the...

We consider the quality of the maximum likelihood estimators for the parameters of the two-parameter gamma distribution in small samples. We show that the methodology suggested by Cox and Snell (1968) can be used very easily to bias-adjust these estimators. A simulation study shows that this...

We derive analytic expressions for the biases, to O(n-1), of the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the generalized Pareto distribution. Using these expressions to bias-correct the estimators is found to be extremely effective in terms of bias reduction, and can also result in a...

type="main" <p>This article charts and explains the rising authority of the People's Bank of China (PBC) within the steep hierarchy of the party state. The PBC‘s rise is explained by using a version of historical institutionalism which focuses on the dialectical or mutually shaping relationships...</p>

In this paper we investigate the impact of data revisions on forecasting and model selection procedures. A linear ARMA model and nonlinear SETAR model are considered in this study. Two Canadian macroeconomic time series have been analyzed: the real-time monetary aggregate M3 (1977-2000) and...

We derive expressions for the first-order bias of the MLE for a Poisson regression model and show how these can be used to adjust the estimator and reduce bias without increasing MSE. The analytic results are supported by Monte Carlo simulations and an empirical application.