Estimates of potential output are an important ingredient of structured forecasting and policy analysis. Using information on consensus forecasts, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Benes and others (2010). Although the estimates in real time are more robust relative to...

This paper revisits the relationship between energy intensity and economic growth, using a flexible piecewise linear regression model. Based on a panel data set of 137 economies during 1990-2014, the analysis identifies a threshold effect of income growth on energy intensity change: although...

A pricing reform in Turkey increased the residential electricity tariff by more than 50 percent in 2008. The reform, aimed at encouraging energy efficiency and private investment, sparked considerable policy debate about its potential impact on household welfare. This paper estimates a short-run...

Emission permit trading is a centerpiece of the Kyoto Protocol which allows participating nations to trade and bank greenhouse gas permits under the Framework Convention on Climate Change. When market conditions evolve stochastically, emission trading produces a dynamic problem, in which...

This paper examines the extent to which countries have succeeded in decoupling transport emissions from economic growth, and how changes in emissions intensity, economic growth, and population growth have contributed to changes in transportation-related emissions. The paper employs a modified...

We examine the causal relationship between energy efficiency and economic growth based on panel data for 56 high- and middle-income economies from 1978 to 2012. Using a panel vector autoregression approach, we find evidence of a long-run Granger causality from economic growth to lower energy...

Input-output analysis has been proven to be a powerful instrument for estimating embodied (direct plus indirect) energy usage through economic sectors. Using 9 economic input-output tables of years 1987, 1990, 1992, 1995, 1997, 2000, 2002, 2005, and 2007, this paper analyzes energy flows for the...

Governments in many countries have offered various incentives to promote the diffusion of electric vehicles (EVs).This study examines the effectiveness of various policy measures that underlie the rapid development of the EV market in China, by far the world's largest such market. The analysis...

Using a survey based on 1,965 enterprise initiations in China, we provide causal evidence that businesses launched in credit-ease years are 7.29% more likely to fail. The result is unlikely to be driven by the “imprinting effect” or the “cohort effect”. Nevertheless, we find the effect...

Evidence for road expansion and electrification as drivers of job creation is limited and mixed, with most studies having considered either one or the other, and only in isolation. This paper estimates the average and heterogeneous impacts of road and electricity investments and the interaction...