year of a gubernatorial election, the elasticity of investment to the eventual margin of victory is 0.027. Both the …

What is the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the 2020 U.S. presidential election? Guided by a pre-analysis plan, we … states, and in states that Trump won in 2016. A simple counterfactual analysis suggests that Trump would likely have won re-election …

What is the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the 2020 U.S. presidential election? Guided by a pre-analysis plan, we … counterfactual analysis suggests that Trump would likely have won re-election if COVID-19 cases had been 5 percent lower. Our paper …

and the subsequent pursuit of a Congressional career. The empirical approach uses a sample of mixed-gender elections to … election relative to an analogous impact for men who closely win or lose a state legislature election. We find that the effect …