Macroeconomic forecasts are used extensively in industry and government The historical accuracy of US and UK forecasts are examined in the light of different approaches to evaluating macro forecasts. Issues discussed include the comparative accuracy of macroeconometric models compared to their...

Macroeconomic forecasts are used extensively in industry and government The historical accuracy of US and UK forecasts are examined in the light of different approaches to evaluating macro forecasts. Issues discussed include the comparative accuracy of macroeconometric models compared to their...

Macroeconomic forecasts are used extensively in industry and government The historical accuracy of US and UK forecasts are examined in the light of different approaches to evaluating macro forecasts. Issues discussed include the comparative accuracy of macroeconometric models compared to their...

Macroeconomic forecasts are used extensively in industry and government The historical accuracy of US and UK forecasts are examined in the light of different approaches to evaluating macro forecasts. Issues discussed include the comparative accuracy of macroeconometric models compared to their...

Aggregate models of innovation diffusion do not capitalise on valuable consumer adoption dynamics that may be useful to policy makers and market planners. The non-diffusion choice literature shows quite clearly that these dynamics may indeed be very important factors in the diffusion process....

Airline traffic forecasting is important to airlines and regulatory authorities. This paper examines a number of approaches to forecasting short- to medium-term air traffic flows. It contributes as a rare replication, testing a variety of alternative modelling approaches. The econometric models...

Forecast adjustment commonly occurs when organizational forecasters adjust a statistical forecast of demand to take into account factors which are excluded from the statistical calculation. This paper addresses the question of how to measure the accuracy of such adjustments. We show that many...

Recent years have seen the dramatic growth of new modes of communication. Above and beyond using land line and mobile phone for voice real-time communication, people spend increasing amounts of time receiving and sending messages through social networks (e.g. Myspace or Facebook) and also...

An avalanche of articles has described the testing of a time series for the presence of unit roots. However, economic model builders have disagreed on the value of testing and how best to operationalise the tests. Sometimes the characterization of the series is an end in itself. More often, unit...

Judgmental adjustments to statistically generated forecasts have become a standard practice in demand forecasting, especially at a stock keeping units level. However, due to the subjective nature of judgmental interventions this approach cannot guarantee optimal use of available information and...