Increasing oil and food prices and persistent supply chain disruptions in 2022 contributed to inflation in advanced economies that had not been seen in decades. This pushed up interest rates, which in turn led to higher yields in global bond markets. This study examines two distinct channels...

Artificial intelligence and machine learning have increasing influence on the financial sector, but also on economy as a whole. The impact of artificial intelligence and machine learning on banking risk management has become particularly interesting after the global financial crisis. The...

The Mortality Information System (Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade - SIM) is the only statistically reliable nationwide database that allows calculating the annual homicide rates for each Federative Unit (FU) since 1980. Concerning to data on violent deaths, two elements, however, may...

This paper outlines why program evaluation should follow well-respected scientific standards and why it should be performed by independent researchers.

Many meta-regression analyses that synthesize estimates from primary studies have now been published in economics. Meta-regression models attempt to infer the presence of genuine empirical effects even if the authors of primary studies select statistically significant and theory-confirming...

Propensity score based-estimators are commonly used to estimate causal effects in evaluation research. To reduce bias in observational studies researchers might be tempted to include many, perhaps correlated, covariates when estimating the propensity score model. Taking into account that the...

We generalize the refinement ordering for well calibrated probability forecasters to the case were the debtors under consideration are not necessarily identical. This ordering is consistent with many well known skill scores used in practice. We also add an illustration using default predictions...

When other measures for economic welfare are scarce or unreliable, the body mass index (BMI) is a biological measure that reflects current net nutrition. This study uses a difference-in-decompositions framework to analyze how women's BMIs varied with the advent of early 20th century social...

This paper considers a modification of the standard Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model of epidemic that allows for different degrees of compulsory as well as voluntary social distancing. It is shown that the fraction of population that self-isolates varies with the perceived probability...

When other measures for economic welfare are scarce or unreliable, the use of biological measures are now standard in economics. This study uses late 19th and early 20th century BMI, statures, and weight to assess how net nutrition accumulated to women and men during US economic development....