Showing 191 - 200 of 186,168
Using data on international, on-line media coverage and tone of the Brexit referendum, we test whether it is media coverage or tone to provide the largest forecasting performance improvements in the prediction of the conditional variance of weekly FTSE 100 stock returns. We find that versions of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012487265
electricity market (SEM). We utilized several forecasting approaches ranging from standard conditional volatility models to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012417069
An accurate weather forecast is the basis for the valuation of weather derivatives, securities that partially compensate for financial losses to holders in case of, from their perspective, adverse outside temperature. The paper analyses precision of two forecast models of average daily...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012264990
simultaneously estimated. Results with realized volatility, volumes and number of trades of the JNJ stock show that significantly … superior realized volatility forecasts are delivered with a fully interdependent vMEM relative to a single equation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011654447
Nowadays, modeling and forecasting the volatility of stock markets have become central to the practice of risk … to forecast the volatility of the Moroccan stock-market index MADEX. We use daily returns covering the period between 01 …, as well as leading to a better understanding of the Moroccan stock-exchange volatility dynamics, especially with the lack …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012023967
broadly, our study dispels the notion that volatility is not forecastable at long horizons and offers an approach that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011976983
formulate a volatility forecast of returns used as an input for determining some subjective views to be included in the Black …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012998423
This is the first comprehensive study on the forecasting of the realized volatility of non-ferrous metal futures. Based … volatility series of aluminum is most useful in enhancing the accuracy of forecasts for other metals. While consistently …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012947354
volatility dynamics modeled as a HAR is augmented by a term involving quarticity in order to correct measurement errors in … accounts for a faster mean reversion when volatility is high. We argue that heteroskedasticity (volatility of volatility) and a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012947755
Analysis with high frequency returns has become a core part of modern financial econometrics. Particularly in the measurement and forecasting of variance, covariance, correlation and Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) beta. This paper studies CAPM beta measurement and forecasting with high...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012848006