Individual equity securities are prone to large and abrupt stock price drops. In this article, the authors provide a framework for measuring, forecasting, and avoiding such stock price crashes. First, the authors identify the events that most frequently cause stock prices to crash, and then they...

A firm in a steady state generates predictable income and investors can generally agree on its valuation. However, when a significant corporate event occurs this creates greater uncertainty and disagreement about firm valuation, and investors could prefer to avoid holding such a stock. We...

A firm in steady state generates predictable income and investors can generally agree on valuation. However, when a significant corporate event occurs this creates greater uncertainty and disagreement about firm valuation and investors could prefer to avoid holding such a stock. We examine...

We document that aggregate accounting earnings growth is an incrementally significant leading indicator of growth in nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Professional macro forecasters, however, do not fully incorporate the predictive content embedded in publicly available accounting earnings...