Which budgetary institutions result in efficient provision of public goods? We analyze a model with two parties deciding the allocation to a public good each period. Parties place different values on the public good, but these values may change over time. We model a budgetary institution as the...

This paper studies communication games in which the sender is possibly honest (tells the truth) and the receiver is possibly naive (follows messages as if truthful). The characterization of message-monotone equilibria in the perturbed games explain several important aspects of strategic...

Our proposed local vector autoregressive (LVAR) model has time-varying parameters that allow it to be safely used in both stationary and non-stationary situations. The estimation is conducted over an interval of local homogeneity where the parameters are approximately constant. The local...

We propose an Adaptive Dynamic Nelson-Siegel (ADNS) model to adaptively forecast the yield curve. The model has a simple yet flexible structure and can be safely applied to both stationary and nonstationary situations with different sources of change. For the 3- to 12-months ahead out-of-sample...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to propose, by drawing on the resource-based view (RBV) and economic regulation theory, that companies with political connections are more likely to enter into industries with high entry barriers, as they are more likely to obtain entry permits from the...

SFB 649 Discussion Paper 2005-060 Portfolio Value at Risk Based on Independent Components Analysis Ying Chen* ** Wolfgang Härdle* Vladimir Spokoiny* ** * CASE - Center for Applied Statistics and Economics, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin ** Weierstraß -...