Probabilistic preference models predict that a subject makes different choices with different probabilities in repeatedly experiments with the same stimuli. This paper explains why. First, we prove that a gamble is a statistical ensemble or sample function of a random field with canonical...

In this study, we consider positive cooperative TU games with finitely many players. We assume that all agents use the same scale. Furthermore, the worth that a coalition of players can achieve by cooperation is measured as a multiple of a defined standard base. In this multiplicative setting we...

Ordering alternatives by their degree of ambiguity is a crucial element in decision-making processes in general and in asset pricing in particular. Thus far the literature has not provided an applicable measure of ambiguity allowing for such ordering. The current paper addresses this need by...

We consider a hypothetical company that is assumed to have just manufactured and sold a number of copies of a product. It is known that, with a small probability, the company has committed a manufacturing fault that will require a recall. The company is able to observe the expiration times of...

This paper applies specific quantitative methods to demonstrate a general theoretical model for measuring strategic performance. The theoretical concepts are universal and measurable for all types of strategic activity by applying the methodology through alternative quantitative analytical...

Assuming that probabilities (capacities) of events are random, this paper introduces a novel model of decision making under ambiguity, called Shadow probability theory, a generalization of the Choquet expected utility. In this model, probabilities of observable events in a subordinated...

This paper extends decision making under risk and uncertainty to group theory via representations of invariant behavioural space for prospect theory. First, we predict that canonical specifications for value functions, probability weighting functions, and stochastic choice maps are homomorphic....

Arrow-Debreu state preference approach to derivatives pricing is embedded into decision theoretical framework. Derivatives prices are considered as decision variables. Axiomatic decision theory, concerned with the attitude toward uncertainty and existence of closed in *-weak topology sets of...

The aim of this paper is to investigate the role of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) in third party ship management and their contribution to the Shipping Performance Index (SPI). This research is mainly motivated from the SPI initiative which is established by the InterManager for the...

Many social interactions (examples are market overreactions, high rates of acquisitions, strikes, wars) are the result of agents' overconfidence. Agents are in particular overconfident for difficult tasks. This paper analyzes overconfidence in the context of a statistical estimation problem. We...