Simple surveys that ask people who they expect to win are among the most accurate methods for forecasting U.S. presidential elections. The majority of respondents correctly predicted the election winner in 193 (89%) of 217 surveys conducted from 1932 to 2012. Across the last 100 days prior to...

While prediction markets have become increasingly popular to forecast the near-term future, the literature provides little evidence on how they perform for long-term problems. For assessing the long-term, decision-makers traditionally rely on experts, although empirical research disputes the...