The paper studies how a prolonged period of subdued price developments may induce a de-anchoring of inflation expectations from the central bank's objective. This is shown within a framework where agents form expectations using adaptive learning, choosing among a set of alternative forecasting...

Survey data on inflation expectations show that: (i) private sector forecasts and central bank forecasts are not fully aligned and (ii) private sector forecasters disagree about inflation expectations. To reconcile these two facts we introduce dispersed information in a New Keynesian model,...

This paper develops a simple model to examine conditions under which a monetary policymaking authority is tempted to follow the market. In doing so, we explore the implications of increased market-consensus on the practice of monetary policy and show that inefficiency in policymaking is most...

We develop and estimate a general equilibrium model to quantitatively assess the effects and welfare implications of central bank transparency. Monetary policy can deviate from active inflation stabilization and agents conduct Bayesian learning about the nature of these deviations. Under...

In currency exchange markets, there is a conflict between individual decisions and the socially optimal solution. Whereas agents have a coordination motive to take the same position, at the social level effective market coordination per se is not socially valuable, and the central bank aims at...

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points on March 3, 2020, in response to concerns about the coronavirus (COVID-19). On March 5 and 6, I conducted an online survey of over 500 U.S. consumers that asked about their attention to, concerns about, and responses to the coronavirus,...

Investors' return expectations are pivotal in stock markets, but the reasoning behind these expectations remains a black box for economists. This paper sheds light on economic agents' mental models - their subjective understanding - of the stock market, drawing on surveys with the US general...

Investors’ return expectations are pivotal in stock markets, but the reasoning behind these expectations remains a black box for economists. This paper sheds light on economic agents’ mental models – their subjective understanding – of the stock market, drawing on surveys with the US...

Forming expectations about the future path of the economy and the own business prospects is not costless for a firm. Instead, acquiring and processing the relevant macroeconomic information requires valuable resources. One important source of information that provides a coding service is the...