A structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model along with a direct acyclic graph is employed to decompose how supply/demand structural shocks affect food and fuel markets. The results support the hypothesis that fundamental market forces of demand and supply are the main drivers of food price...

This paper is one of the limited studies to investigate rebound effects in sectoral electricity consumption and the specific case of New Zealand. New Zealand, like other OECD economies, has aimed for energy efficiency improvements and reduced electricity consumption from 9.2 MWh per capita in...

The substantial fluctuations in oil prices in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have highlighted the importance of tail events in the global market for crude oil which call for careful risk assessment. In this paper we focus on forecasting tail risks in the...

This paper presents new results on the identification of heteroskedastic structural vector autoregressive (HSVAR) models. Point identification of HSVAR models fails when some shifts in the variances of the structural shocks are suspected to be statistically indistinguishable from each other....

This paper examines the contribution of market expectations to commodity price dynamics. It proposes a dynamic competitive storage framework with an expectations shock explicitly along with concurrent shocks to study the commodity price movements. This allows for a more refined analysis of the...

This paper investigates the degree of integration among markets using wholesale electricity prices. The reason arises from the link between the long-run dynamic of fuel prices and electricity prices. We address the question of whether European electricity markets have experienced convergence...

The aim of this study is to assess whether fuel prices in Greece respond asymmetrically to changes in the global oil prices. To do so, we depart from the current practice in the literature that focuses on fuel prices. Rather, we consider the mark-up of both the refineries and retailers. Even...

In recent years, the crude oil price has risen from the $20s to the $140s. This rise is modeled using a state space regression model with time-varying beta coefficients. Explanatory variables used include days of stock cover, refinery utilization, speculative long interest and market...

A dynamic, structural asymmetric vector-error correction model is used to identify and estimate the demand and the supply functions for hourly, day-ahead electricity wholesale markets. The analysis provides new insights on a well-established but unresolved aspect concerning the extent of demand...

In this paper we investigate wholesale electricity prices integration process in the main European markets. After reforms introduced in the last decades in Europe, wholesale electricity prices are now determined in regulated markets. However, while market institutional frameworks show several...