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This paper investigates how technical trading systems exploit the momentum and reversal effects in the S&P 500 spot and futures market. When based on daily data, the profitability of 2580 technical models has steadily declined since 1960, and has been unprofitable since .the early 1990s....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013226778
This paper investigates how technical trading systems exploit the momentum and reversal effects in the S&P 500 spot and futures market. The former is exploited by trend-following models, while the latter by contrarian models. In total, the performance of 2580 widely used models is analyzed. When...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135708
In this paper, I show that the variance of Fama-French factors, the variance of the momentum factor, as well as the correlation between these factors, predict an important fraction of the time-series variation in post-1990 aggregate stock market returns. This predictability is particularly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013150662
The relationships between crude and product prices are crucial throughout oil markets and especially so within the refining industry, where they define the refinery margin between cost of inputs (crudes) and value of outputs (products). The oil market is global but regional factors are also...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013067163
exposure to changes in the price of the underlying stock (delta), and exposure to changes in implied volatility (vega) are …-known market, size, book-to-market, momentum, and short-term reversal factors. Additional volatility, stock, and option market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013111682
. Proposed extensions include a volatility regime switching mechanism (using dummy variables and the Markov approach) and the … fifth risk factor based on realized volatility of index returns. Moreover, instead of using data for stocks of a particular …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011539896
Aggregate implied volatility spread (IVS), defined as the cross-sectional average difference in the implied …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011897782
Stock market volatility clusters in time, appears fractionally integrated, carries a risk premium, and exhibits … asymmetric leverage effects relative to returns. At the same time, the volatility risk premium, defined by the difference between … the risk-neutral and objective expectations of the volatility, is distinctly less persistent and appears short …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014190565
Equity index implied volatility functions are known to be excessively skewed in comparison with implied volatility at … index implied volatility from simulating the 30 dimensional return system of all DAX constituents. Option prices are …-dependence coupled with asymmetric correlation response to negative news is essential to explain the index implied volatility skew …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013092464
We study how the excess market return depends on the time of the day using E-mini S&P 500 futures that are actively traded for almost 24 hours. Strikingly, four hours around European open account for the entire average market return. This period's returns are consistently positive in every year,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012834630