Following the shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic, the economy may be significantly changed relative to the pre-pandemic world. One critical shift induced by the COVID- 19 pandemic is a need for physical distance (at least 6 feet apart) between workers and customers. In this study, we examine the...

We propose a Bayesian VAR model with stochastic volatility and time varying skewness to estimate the degree of labour at risk in the euro area and in the United States. We model the asymmetry of the shocks to changes in the unemployment rate as a function of real activity and financial risk...

This paper advances the application of Bayesian graphical structural vector autoregressive (BGSVAR) models to address the problem of impulse response estimation in VAR-based systems. The BGSVAR is designed as a robust empirical framework for impulse response estimation using information from the...

The first quarter (Q1) 2023 manufacturing overall composite index remains below the baseline (100), indicating that conditions remain unfavorable. In addition, indexes for all indicators dropped significantly from the previous quarter. Business conditions (77), sales (75), domestic demand (78),...

We propose a Bayesian VAR model with stochastic volatility and time varying skewness to estimate the degree of labour at risk in the euro area and in the United States. We model the asymmetry of the shocks to changes in the unemployment rate as a function of real activity and financial risk...

The Business Survey Index (BSI) is published quarterly by the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade. Visit www.kiet.re.kr for more projections and industrial statistics. The overall composite Business Survey Index for the manufacturing sector in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2022...

This study examines the employment status of older Americans in the months immediately before and after the peak COVID-19 lockdown in April 2020. The authors construct longitudinal employment data from 2019–2020 Current Population Surveys. To account for seasonal fluctuations in employment and...

The Korean Economic and Industrial Outlook is published quarterly by the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade. Visit www.kiet.re.kr for more projections and industrial statistics. In the first half of 2022, the domestic real economy recovered thanks to improved consumption and...

In any economic analysis, regions or municipalities should not be regarded as isolated spatial units, but rather as highly interrelated small open economies. These spatial interrelations must be considered also when the aim is to forecast economic variables. For example, policy makers need...

The paper discusses the influence of the global economic crisis on the Latvian economy. Using the system dynamics approach and models produced beforehand, various development scenarios of tax policy, householder crediting, and the job market are analyzed. Produced models allow to obtain...