This note shows that a big stock market crash, in the absence of central bank intervention, will be followed by a major recession one to four quarters later. I establish this fact by studying the forecasting ability of three models of the unemployment rate. I show that the connection between...

A main problem for macroeconomic studies continues to be the estimation of capital stock and some derived indicators like coefficient of capital, depreciation rate, etc. In this way we are proposing a simple and intuitively model in order to estimate such basic macroeconomic indicators but...

This paper analyzes optimal unemployment insurance (UI) over the business cycle. We consider a general matching model of the labor market. For a given UI, the economy is efficient if tightness satisfies a generalized Hosios condition, slack if tightness is too low, and tight if tightness is too...

We study employment reallocation across heterogeneous employers through the lens of a dynamic job-ladder model, where more productive employers spend more hiring effort and are more likely to succeed in hiring because they offer more. As a consequence, an employer's size is a relevant proxy for...

In this paper we study the experiences of wage and price mark-up adjustments (internal devaluation) in Germany (in the decade up to 2009) and Spain (in the 5-year after 2009) within the framework of the ECB’s New Multi-Country Model (NMCM). The NMCM works both in a rational expectation...

The aim of this article is to explore main linkages among the participation rate, potential output and pension funding system. Based on the existing literature, there are several possibilities how to render the current set-up of the pension system sustainable. This sustainability is...

This note examines labour market performance across countries through the lens of Okun's Law. We find that after the 1970s but prior to the global financial crisis of the 2000s, the Okun's Law relationship between output and unemployment became more homogenous across countries. These changes...

In this article we seek to estimate the Brazilian “Okun’s law” with quarterly data ranging from 1980Q1 until 2013Q3. Considering the typical Okun's relationship, Δu=α-βg_y, where β is the Okun coefficient, we have obtained estimates of β between -0.1878 and -0.2055, such values are in...

In this study, we propose a quantitative evaluation on employment of payroll tax subsidies for low-wage workers with the macroeconomic model of the OFCE emod.fr. We evaluate that this measure creates 500,000 jobs after five years, but induces a cost to public finances. If we were to fund ex post...

The purpose of this paper is to provide a coherent framework to explain the unusual phenomena of employment, real wage, and profit share observed in industrialised economies since the 1980s, in relation to the speed of demand saturation. To this end, we use a multisectoral model including...