In the real world, the theory of economic faces many obstacles in its analyses and interpretations. One of these problems is overlapping relationships between specific variables and difficulty of determining perfect formulation which contain all possible effect. Traditional statistics tools like...

The main goal of this paper is to better understand the behavior of credit spreads in the past and the potential risk of unexpected future credit spread changes. One important consideration to note regarding credit spreads is the fact that bond spreads contain a liquidity premium, which...

We introduce a new approach to model the market smile for inflation-linked derivatives by defining the Quadratic Gaussian Year-on-Year inflation model -- the QGY model. We directly define the model in terms of a year-on-year ratio of the inflation index on a discrete tenor structure, which,...

We derive a closed-form expansion of option prices in terms of Black-Scholes prices and higher-order Greeks. We show how the true price of an option less its Black-Scholes price is given by a series of premiums on higher-order risks that are not priced under the Black-Scholes model assumptions....

This paper addresses the joint calibration problem of SPX options and VIX options or futures. We show that the problem can be formulated as a semimartingale optimal transport problem under a finite number of discrete constraints, in the spirit of [arXiv:1906.06478]. We introduce a PDE...

In an environment with stocks and short-term debt, random changes in the risk-reward frontier produce hedging demands for equities, implying that portfolio policies supporting optimal life-cycle consumption are rarely mean-variance efficient. Pursuing optimal life-cycle portfolio policies is...

We use minority game model to investigate evolutionary dynamics in complex networks of adaptive agents competing for limited resources. We show that the dynamics and the associated phase structures critically depend on the underlying network organizations, and evolution is a key mechanism for...

Modern portfolio theory produces optimal portfolios from estimates of expected returns and a covariance matrix. Such optimal portfolios are efficient portfolios, that is they provide the maximum level of expected return for a given level of risk. We present a method for portfolio selection based...

In this paper, we introduce and develop the theory of semimartingale optimal transport in a path dependent setting. Instead of the classical constraints on marginal distributions, we consider a general framework of path dependent constraints. Duality results are established, representing the...

In commodity markets, a trader selling her inventory over a finite time horizon has access not only to the spot market but also to forward contracts. The trader has the choice to sell at the spot price, or to short a forward contract for later delivery, or a combination of both. While the...