We develop a monthly Global Financial Stability Index (GFSX) that incorporates the global stock market outlook, momentum, and overall risk. Refining the financial stability concept presents challenges because of the many different approaches researchers have pursued, as well as the availability...

We present an econometric framework that estimate conjoined ‘fixed effect' components to analyze the presidential puzzle, by separating party policy impact on the stock market from each president ability. Our methodology enable us to examine what drives the higher excess return under...

This paper examines the relation between political regime change, a new president from a new party, and propensity for CEO turnover. Our key conjecture is that some companies, especially those that are politically sensitive, will politically reposition to adapt to the new political regime, and...

This paper shows a non-linear convex relationship between an investor's experience and overconfidence. While the literature argues that overconfidence increases at first owing to bias in self-attribution, such as taking credit for success, this paper demonstrates that investor overconfidence...

This paper studies the oil price movement accounting for time horizon. Historical data demonstrates that the price of oil jumps from one state (condition) to another, remains stable stays for some time, and then jumps again to a new state, a phenomenon that is similar to 'leap frog'. Motivated...

The purpose of this document is to lay out a general strategy for companies who competes with Amazon, in some segments of the market. The strategy includes three dimensions: marketing, behavioral (finance), and innovation. The marketing component suggests head to head match-up. The behavioral...

We utilize a novel data about households' reservation returns to reexamine the limited stock market participations and the equity premium puzzles, where instead of asking why households are too averse to risk, we ask why households exhibit greater reservation returns (which reflect the...

This paper demonstrates a strong inverse connection between daily stock returns and Congress in session. Our key conjecture is when Congress is in session, more media attention focuses on congressional activity than on the stock market; the more the news attention is political, the lower the...

This paper shows that the Warren Buffet Indicator (BI) about stock market valuation, measured as the overall stock market value divided by GDP, contains an upward bias and not a proper indicator for three main reasons. Primarily, over 40% of the S&P companies’ earnings is overseas, which makes...

We show that key congress characteristics influence stock market outcomes, and under-diversified congress depresses the performance and upsurge the volatility in the stock market. Our key hypotheses is that congress background influences type, quantity and quality of bills passed, and hence...