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analyst forecasts. We focus on rounding as arguably the most salient forecast feature. We find that while rounding is only … marginally associated with forecast accuracy, investors attribute to it undue significance. Investors view rounding as distinctly … informative to other analyst characteristics that determine forecast accuracy and the likelihood of rounding. Unlike previous …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013058142
We substantially improve cross-sectional earnings forecast models, such as Hou, van Dijk, and Zhang (2012), by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013405879
We use machine learning methods and high-dimensional detailed financial data to predict the direction of one-year-ahead earnings changes. Our models show significant out-of-sample predictive power: the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve ranges from 67.52% to 68.66%,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014239243
We examine the adoption effect of ASC 606 on revenue informativeness, analyst forecast dispersion, and forecast errors … forecast accuracy and consensus. Such adoption effects are mainly temporary and focused in firms that are more affected by the … informativeness and lower analyst forecast error than firms using the modified retrospective method …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013405038
We evaluate the influence of measurement error in analysts' forecasts on the accuracy of implied cost of capital estimates from various implementations of the ‘implied cost of capital' approach, and develop corrections for the measurement error. We document predictable error in the implied...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013114798
-based equity valuation and market value of equity we introduce two new concepts: coincident and forecast relevance of accounting … coincident and forecast relevance by estimating Ohlson model parameters with country panel regressions for exchange …-listed companies from France and Germany. The results confirm that coincident relevance is stronger than forecast relevance in both …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013116111
reliance does not translate into an increased impact per unit of each non-fundamental factor on forecast bias. Finally, our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012857242
We find that lower ex-ante earnings volatility leads to higher Post-Earnings Announcement Drift (PEAD). PEAD is a function of both the magnitude of an earnings surprise and its persistence. While prior research has largely investigated market reactions to the magnitude of the earnings surprise,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013039007
intermediaries. Prior research finds that accruals and analyst earnings forecast revisions predict future returns. We find that the … accrual and forecast revision strategies generate hedge returns of 15.5% and 5.5% when implemented independently. Strikingly …, a combined strategy that uses forecast revisions to refine the accrual strategy generates a hedge return of 28.5%. Firms …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014072446
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013100027