We employ probit models to study the predictability of recession periods in Finland using a set of commonly used variables based on previous literature. The findings point out that individual predictors, including the term spread and the real housing prices from the capital area, are useful...

The objective of this study is to estimate the Chilean economy’s growth rate in a context of full employment of the productive resources. As reference, some experts estimate at that the long term growth of the activity has fallen from 5 per cent to a rank between 4.5 per cent and 5 per cent in...

This paper tests for multiple structural breaks in the mean, seasonality, dynamics and conditional volatility of Greater Tumen Initiative Countries’ (GTI) growth and inflation, while also accounting for outliers. It finds a drop in the level of Chinese growth rate in the third quarter of 2011...

We use a three-regime threshold regression model to assess the ability of the New Keynesian Wage Phillips Curve (NKWPC) to describe wage inflation in the U.S. over the 1965-2018 period. Non-linearity is clearly supported by the data and it easily resists an endogeneity correction. However, this...

Decomposing time series data into trend and cyclical components is among the top priorities for policy maker institutions. Comparing with the unrestricted Beveridge-Nelson decomposition and Hodrick-Prescott filter, we implement a restricted Beveridge-Nelson filter developed by Kamber et. al....

We analyze determinacy in the baseline open-economy New Keynesian model developed by Gali and Monacelli (2005). We find that the open economy structure causes multifaceted behaviors in the system creating extra challenges for policy making. The degree of openness significantly affects...

In this paper we show that the exchange rates of some commodity exporter countries have the ability to predict the price of spot and future contracts of aluminum. This is shown with both in-sample and out-of-sample analyses. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the...

Traditionally, underwriting performance is considered to be a function of industry-specific institutions. Using quarterly data from 1974 through 1990, we provide evidence of a long-run link between the general economy and the underwriting performance as measured by the combined ratio. Using...

We introduce a new time series model for public consumption expenditure, tax revenues and real income that is capable to incorporate oscillations characterized by asymmetric phase and duration (or dynamic asymmetry). A specific-to-general econometric strategy is implemented in order to exclude...

Currency crises and financial instability in the 1990s have increased the needs of regional cooperation, hence leading to the proposition of optimal currency area (OCA). But only if shocks are symmetric, the cost of relinquish the flexible monetary policy is to be outweighed by the benefits of...