Mazziero, Maurizio, Baggiani, Leonardo, Fait, Silvano and Lawford, Andrew, Italia 2011: Un Anno Di Sofferenza (Italy 2011: A Year of Sufferance) (February 18, 2012). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2007513 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2007513 Mazziero, Maurizio, Italia 3 Trim...

In this paper, we study the drivers of public debt surges across 172 countries from 1980-2021. We focus on the role of discrepancies between the annual change in public debt and the budget deficit, referred to as stock-flow adjustments (SFA). The analysis employs survival methods to model the...

Public debt in the OECD area passed annual GDP in 2011 and is still rising. For many countries, just stabilising debt - let alone bringing it down to a more sustainable level - is a major challenge. The debt overhangs can affect growth through channels such as raising the cost of capital. The...

We provide a measure of the output gap that filters out the impact of the commodity and net capital inflows booms for Latin American countries. These two factors temporarily boost output and so are likely to push up estimates of potential growth in the region to unrealistic levels, thereby...

In the years preceding the international debt crisis of the 1980s, international banks displayed a growing enthusiasm for lending to Mexico and other developing countries. During this period, Mexico's development and commercial banks got heavily involved in intermediating foreign finance with...

This article analyzes sovereign debt defaults in four Latin American countries — Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico — for the period 1870-2012. The impact of sovereign defaults on real GDP growth is generally short-lived, while the impact in terms of output losses is deep and lasts long....

In recent years, the number of theoretical models on sovereign default exploded. I take a step back and investigate how good our current theoretical understanding of real world sovereign debt crisis really is. This is done by deriving implications that are hard wired into our models and...

We show how elite capture affects optimal debt repatriations and management of official reserves under capital controls, bridging literature on debt buybacks and secondary markets. The model we provide guides our study of one of history's largest debt repatriations -in 1930s Germany. Authorities...

We estimate public investment gaps in a sample of developing countries using a public investment demand function. We then use GDP per capita projections, forecasts of structural transformation, and three SDG targets (poverty, infant mortality and lower secondary school completion) to predict...

During the pandemic, public debt in Latin America and the Caribbean rose to more than 70 percent of GDP, and countries are now attempting to lower debt ratios. We analyze past debt reduction episodes and find inflation and the real interest rate were the most frequent main drivers, while higher...