probabilities that are less accurate in predicting their in-sample mortality. There is little evidence that the gradients in the … veracity of expectations are due to the less educated and cognitively able responding less to changes in objective mortality …

this area will be described and critically discussed particularly with regard to their ex post forecast quality … and west Germany. It will also provide a foundation for the development of a new forecast based on amore updated …

We compute a stochastic household forecast for the Netherlands by the random share method. Time series of shares of … data set by collapsing the age dimension into one scalar. As a result, the forecast task implies predicting two time series …-Carter model. The random shares are combined with population numbers from an independently computed stochastic population forecast …

decline in mortality alongside low fertility rates - a situation that puts social security systems under severe pressure. To …-as-you-go systems are needed. We propose a probabilistic approach to forecast the numbers of pensioners in Germany up to 2040 …

forecasts and probabilistic prediction intervals for demographic parameters in addition. Age-sex specific population forecast … for Germany is derived through a stochastic population renewal process using forecasts of mortality, fertility and … indices of mortality and fertility rates. These models are then used in the simulation of future vital rates to obtain age …