We investigate the effects of US-imposed trade sanctions on the global trade patterns of sanctioned countries by employing a gravity model that incorporates data spanning from 1980 to 2020 across 79 nations. The results reveal that both partial and complete US sanctions lead to significant...

We nest an extended two-way fixed effect (ETWFE) estimator for staggered difference-in-differences within the structural gravity model. To test the ETWFE, we estimate the effects of regional trade agreements (RTAs). The results suggest that RTA estimates in the current gravity literature may be...

The paper analyzes whether the political regime of a country influences its involvement in international trade. Firstly, we develop a theoretical model that predicts that autocracies trade less than democracies. Secondly, we test the predictions of the model empirically using a panel of more...

Trade policy barriers are only one element of overall trade costs. Among these, and due to the decrease in the influence of tariff barriers on trade over time, institutional barriers might increase in relative importance and become a key obstacle to the movements of goods across countries. This...

Gravity equations have been used for more than 50 years to estimate ex post the partial effects of trade costs on international trade flows, and the well-known - and traditionally presumed exogenous - "trade-cost elasticity" plays a central role in computing general equilibrium trade-flow and...

We develop a novel two-stage methodology that allows us to study the empirical determinants of the ex post effects of past free trade agreements (FTAs) as well as obtain ex ante predictions for the effects of future FTAs. We first identify 908 unique estimates of the effects of FTAs on different...

The WTO's plurilateral Information Technology Agreement (ITA) reduced tariffs to zero on many IT products. This paper presents a comprehensive study of its trade impacts by incorporating recent insights from both the global value chain (GVC) and time in trade literatures. Inserting tariffs...

Trade policy barriers are only one element of overall trade costs. Among these, and due to the decrease in the influence of tariff barriers on trade over time, institutional barriers might increase in relative importance and become a key obstacle to the movements of goods across countries. This...

Trade policy barriers are only one element of overall trade costs. Among these, and due to the decrease in the influence of tariff barriers on trade over time, institutional barriers might increase in relative importance and become a key obstacle to the movements of goods across countries. This...

We estimate the effect of RTAs on bilateral exports by means of a gravity model analyzing its sensitivity to different specifications and methods. RTAs generate a sizable positive effect. However, shifting to country-pair and time-varying fixed effects systematically reduces coefficients....