We explore the term structures of claims to a variety of cash flows: U.S. government bonds (claims to dollars), foreign government bonds (claims to foreign currency), inflation-adjusted bonds (claims to the price index), and equity (claims to future equity indexes or dividends). Average term...

There is strong empirical evidence that the pricing kernel is Ushaped,which provides a way to explain the substantial coskewnesspremium. Existing studies typically use a polynomial approximationof the pricing kernel. Problematically, these polynomials have, inmost cases, increasing parts by...

Many statistical applications require an estimate of a covariance matrix and/or its inverse.When the matrix dimension is large compared to the sample size, which happensfrequently, the sample covariance matrix is known to perform poorly and may suffer fromill-conditioning. There already exists...

In this paper, I assess whether earnings-dependent maternity leave positively impacts fertility and narrows the baby gap between highly educated (high-earning) and less-educated (low-earning) women. I exploit a major maternity leave benefit reform in Germany that considerably increased the...

The trend in the world real interest rate for safe and liquid assets fluctuated close to 2 percent for more than a century, but has dropped significantly over the past three decades. This decline has been common among advanced economies, as trends in real interest rates across countries have...

We use worker-firm matched data from Homebase to construct new real-time estimates of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on employment and hours worked of small businesses. We find four key results: (1) employment of small businesses in four of the hardest hit service sectors contracted by an...