Motivated by the desire to bridge the gap between the microscopic description of price formation (agent-based modeling) and the stochastic differential equations approach used classically to describe price evolution at macroscopic time scales, we present a mathematical study of the order book as...

A Markov-switching model in wind speed forecasting is examined in this research. The proposed method employs a regime switching process governed by a discrete-state Markov chain to model the nonlinear evolvement of the wind speed time-series. A Bayesian inference rather than the traditional...

Statistical properties of position-dependent ball-passing networks in real football games are examined. We find that the networks have the small-world property, and their degree distributions are fitted well by a truncated gamma distribution function. In order to reproduce these properties of...

Heterogeneity in choice models is typically assumed to have a normal distribution in both Bayesian and classical setups. In this paper, we propose a semiparametric Bayesian framework for the analysis of random coefficients discrete choice models that can be applied to both individual as well as...

An epidemiological model is described that closely mimicked results of a published serological study of natural transmission of Maedi-Visna virus in a low ground flock of sheep. We adjusted parameters in the model from this baseline to explore the possible implications for the control of...

This article presents a simple methodology for computing Value at Risk (VaR) for a portfolio of financial instruments that is sensitive to market risk, rating change, and default risk. An integrated model for market and credit risks is developed. The Jarrow, Lando and Turnbull model (the Markov...

Dynamic risk processes, which involve interactions at the hazard and risk levels, have yet to be clearly understood and properly integrated into probabilistic risk assessment. While much attention has been given to this aspect lately, most studies remain limited to a small number of...

We study nonzero-sum stopping games with randomized stopping strategies. The existence of Nash equilibrium and ɛ-equilibrium strategies are discussed under various assumptions on players random payoffs and utility functions dependent on the observed discrete time Markov process. Then we will...

The aim of this paper is to solve the basic stochastic shortest-path problem (SSPP) for Markov chains (MCs) with countable state space and then apply the results to a class of nearest-neighbor MCs on the lattice state space <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$$\mathbb Z \times \mathbb Z $$</EquationSource> </InlineEquation> whose only moves are one step up,...</equationsource></inlineequation>