We put forward a framework for measuring systemic risk and attributing it to individual banks. Systemic risk is measured as the expected loss to depositors and investors when a low-probability systemic event occurs. The risk contributions are calculated based on derivatives of the systemic risk...

Данная часть завершает серию консультационных публикаций Деана Фантаццини на тему «Эконометрический анализ финансовых данных в задачах управления риском». В...

This paper presents a framework in which many structural credit risk models can be made hybrid by randomizing the default trigger, while keeping the capital structure intact. This produces random recovery rates negatively correlated with the default probability. The approach is implemented on a...

Choosing a proper external risk measure is of great regulatory importance, as exemplified in the Basel II and Basel III Accord which use Value-at-Risk (VaR) with scenario analysis as the risk measures for setting capital requirements. We argue a good external risk measure should be robust with...

The majority of industry credit portfolio risk models, as well as recent scientific results, are based on isolated modules for default probabilities and recoveries in the event of default. This paper shows that these common methods lead to various econometric drawbacks when the parameters are...

The stability of the financial system is associated with systemic risk factors such as the concurrent default of numerous small obligors. Hence it is of utmost importance to study the mutual dependence of losses for different creditors in the case of large, overlapping credit portfolios. We...

We consider a lender (bank) who determines the optimal loan price (interest rate) to offer to prospective borrowers under uncertain borrower response and default risk. A borrower may or may not accept the loan at the price offered, and both the principal loaned and the interest income become...