, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan and Thailand) and two developed markets (i.e. USA and Japan). This …

This paper introduces tests for cointegration breakdown that may occur over a relatively short time period, such as at …

for future inflation for the cross section of New EU Member States. This paper provides stylized facts on monetary versus … non-monetary (economic and fiscal) determinants of inflation in these countries as well as formal econometric evidence on … predicting inflation at longer (3-year) horizons. -- Inflation forecasting ; leading indicators ; monetary policy ; information …

We develop a time-varying transition probabilities Markov Switching model in which inflation is characterised by two … regimes (high and low inflation). Using Bayesian techniques, we apply the model to the euro area, Germany, the US, the UK and … switches between inflation regimes. Thus money growth provides an important early warning indicator for risks to price …

This paper addresses the relative importance of monetary indicators for forecasting inflation in the euro area in a … empirical question whether the group of monetary variables is relevant for forecasting euro area inflation. In our application …, we consider about thirty monetary and non-monetary indicators for inflation. Using this data, BMA provides inclusion …

. On the basis of these variables, composite indicators are calculated that proxy inflation expectations, the degree of … slack in the economy and other inflation pressures, domestic and external alike. On the information analysed, the recent … period of low inflation in the Spanish economy is estimated to have come about in a setting in which domestic factors …

This paper addresses the relative importance of monetary indicators for forecasting inflation in the euro area in a … empirical question whether the group of monetary variables is relevant for forecasting euro area inflation. In our application …, we consider about thirty monetary and non-monetary indicators for inflation. Using this data, BMA provides inclusion …

indicators in predicting euro area HICP inflation out-of-sample over the period first quarter 1999 till third quarter 2006 …