populations, provided recipients use forecast information to update climate expectations. We test whether pastoralists in southern … Ethiopia and northern Kenya update their expectations in response to forecast information. The minority of herders who received …

errors either in the form of numbers or graphs; and in the fourth treatment (Forecast), participants are offered a forecast … to Baseline, b) Feedback-N, Feedback-G, and Forecast significantly reduce bias relative to both Baseline and Step, c) the …

nature of forecast biases depends on these parameters. The model provides a simple explanation for a number of features of …

We use oil price forecasts from the Consensus Economic Forecast poll to analyze how forecasters form their expectations … role. Standard measures of forecast accuracy reveal forecasters' underperformance relative to the random walk benchmark …. However, this result appears to be biased due to peso problems. -- Oil price ; survey data ; forecast bias ; peso problem …