Using two decades of annual data, we explore the links between real exchange rates and employment, wages, and overtime activity in specific U.S. manufacturing industries. Across two-digit industry levels of aggregation, exchange rate movements do not have large effects on numbers of jobs or on...

This paper documents that an appreciation of the U.S. dollar is associated with a reduction in the supply of commercial and industrial loans by U.S. banks. An increase in the broad dollar index by 2.5 points (one standard deviation) reduces U.S. banks’ corporate loan originations by 10...

This paper examines how U.S. monetary policy uncertainty (MPU) affects RMB deviations from covered interest parity (CIP) and how this effect is influenced by China's capital controls, the RMB exchange rate regime, and international reserves that constrain the transmitting channel of U.S. MPU...

This paper investigates possible drivers of volatility in the South African rand since the onset of the global financial crisis. We assess the role played by local and international economic surprises, commodity price volatility, global market risk perceptions, and local political uncertainty....

We investigate the drivers of dynamics of major U.S. FX bilaterals. We first construct a novel measure of FX risk premiums using Consensus exchange rate forecasts. We then use VAR analysis to show that (i) risk premium shocks play a key role in driving dynamics of the major U.S. FX bilaterals;...

In this study the relationship between change in US Dollar-Euro exchange rate and short-term market rates (Federal Funds Rate, Three-Month Treasury Bill and Three-Month LIBOR) is examined. The study finds that there is a strong relationship among the US Dollar-Euro exchange rates, federal funds...

A stronger US fiscal condition predicts a higher excess return on the dollar against foreign currencies in the following year, and more so against foreign currencies with higher dollar betas. Through the lens of a no-arbitrage model, I use these findings to refine our understanding of the...

This paper studies the dynamic relationship between demand for the US Treasury yields and cross-currency swap (CCS) bases since the 2008 global financial crisis. Using a three-factor non-Gaussian-term structure model for the US Treasuries, an estimated short-rate premium in the yield curve tends...

We identify a U.S.-driven factor using a monthly panel of fifteen bilateral exchange rates against the U.S. dollar since 1999. We find this factor is closely related to nominal and real macroeconomic variables, as well as financial market variables from the U.S. Using this factor alone, we show...

In this paper, we employ a unique dataset of actual US dollar (USD) forward positions against a number of currencies taken by so-called Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs). We investigate to what extent these positions exhibit a pattern of USD carry trading or other patterns of currency trading...