This paper shows why regressing the realised rates of depreciation within the exchange rate band on a given information set and conditional on (ex-post) actual no-realignment (à la drift adjustment) still encounters a Peso Problem. Such a procedure generally gives inconsistent estimates. The...

The application of continuous time Weibull models on discrete unemployment duration data may produce bias in the estimated shape of the hazard rate. The bias can be substantial even for weekly duration data, and it is seriously aggravated if the Weibull model is erroneously mixed with a Gamma...

We present new Monte Carlo evidence regarding the feasibility of separating causality from selection within non-experimental interval-censored duration data, by means of the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE). Key findings are: i) the NPMLE is extremely reliable, and it...

We conduct extensive Monte Carlo experiments on non-parametric estimations of duration models with unknown duration dependence and unknown mixing distribution for unobserved heterogeneity. We propose a full non-parametric maximum likelihood approach, based on time-varying lagged explanatory...

In an important paper, Fuhrer and Moore (1995) showed that Taylor (1980)’s staggered wage setting model does not exhibit persistence in inflation; they proposed a simple modification, in which workers cared about the real wages of other workers, which solves this problem. However, we argue...

In this note I bring a new aspect into the so called Island Problem. Given that only cases where there is a suspect reaches the court, what is the consequence for the probability of guilt? I find that it indeed matters for the results that court cases are selected in this way. The analysis...

I derive the exact small sample properties of the instrumental variables estimator using a trigonometric approach. The distribution for the estimation error is decomposed into a product of three components - each with an intuitive interpretation. This approach helps the discussion on what...

Toimialojen ja avainklustereiden tuotannon ja työllisyyden ennusteiden laatimista varten on rakennettu yksityiskohtainen pitkän ajan kehityksen arviointiin soveltuva ennustemalli. Ennustejärjestelmällä on arvioitu avainklustereiden ja muiden toimialojen tuotannon ja työllisyyden kehitystä...

Growth regression economics are haunted by the fact that results are easily overthrown by regressing alternative model specifications. Recent research therefore aims at obtaining robust regression results by systematically running multiple models and picking surviving variables. This note shows...

Estimation of signals at the current boundary of time series is an important task in many practical applications. In order to apply the symmetric filter at current time, model-based approaches typically rely on forecasts generated from a time series model in order to extend (stretch) the time...