Incorporating arbitrage-free term-structure dynamics into a semi-structural macro-model, we jointly estimate the real equilibrium interest rate (r*), trend inflation, and term premia for the United States and the euro area, using a Bayesian approach. The natural real rate and trend inflation are...

We estimate the natural rate of interest for the US and the euro area in a semi-structural model comprising a Taylor rule. Our estimates feature key elements of Laubach and Williams (2003), but are more consistent with using conventional policy rules: we model inflation to be stationary, with...

A growing literature argues that slower output growth is one of the main contributing factors to the fall in the natural rate of interest. Consistent with this evidence, we show empirically that real GDP growth is a major driver of the nominal yield curve. Specifically, the rate of economic...

A key variable for the conduct of monetary policy is the natural rate of interest - the real interest rate consistent with output equaling potential and stable inflation. Economic theory implies that the natural rate of interest varies over time and depends on the trend growth rate of output. In...

This paper surveys the decline in real interest rates in advanced and emerging economies over the past several decades, linking that process to a range of global factors that have operated with different force in different periods. The paper argues that estimates of long-run equilibrium real...

The acceleration of house price growth amidst falling interest rates to record-low levels across euro area countries between 2015 and 2021 has sparked renewed interest in the link between the two variables. Asset-pricing theory suggests that real house prices respond to changes in real interest...

This paper analyses the Nairu in the Euro Area and the influence that monetary policy had on its development. Using the Kalman-filter technique we find that the Nairu has varied considerably since the early seventies. The Kalman-filter technique is applied here for the first time using explicit...