This article examines the regime changes in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM), by applying the duration model approach to quarterly data of eight currencies participating in the ERM, covering the complete European Monetary System history. We first make use of the nonparametric...

This paper is devoted to the past, present, and future of the European Monetary System (EMS). After examining its background, the paper reviews the structure and operation of the EMS, as well as the theoretical framework used to explain exchange-rate movements inside official fluctuation bands....

This paper examines the regime changes in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM), by applying the duration model approach to quarterly data of eight currencies participating in the ERM, covering the complete European Monetary System (EMS) history. We first make use of the nonparametric...

The Spanish regions are facing a severe recession caused by the international financial crisis that has overlapped with the correction that had been recorded in the property market, which has led to a sharp drop in economic activity and a rapid destruction process employment. In these...

In this paper we investigate the profitability of non-linear trading rules based on nearest neighbour (NN) predictors. Applying this investment strategy to the New York Stock Exchange for the 1997-2002 period, our results suggest that, taking into account transaction costs, the NN-based trading...

This paper provides an updated survey of a burgeoning literature on testing, estimation and model specification in the presence of integrated variables. Integrated variables are a specific class of non-stationary variables which seem to characterise faithfully the properties of many...

This paper tries to shed light on the historical analogies of the current crisis. To that end we compare the current sample distribution of Dow Jones Industrial Average Index returns for a 769-day period (from 15 September 2008, the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, to September 2011), with all...

This paper contributes to the literature on convergence of prices in Europe by investigating the existence of stochastic and deterministic convergence of car prices in the EU15 countries over the period 1993-2008. For that purpose, we conduct unit root testing by employing the recently developed...

This paper examines the sources of real exchange rate (RER) volatility in eighty countries around the world, during the period 1970 to 2011. Our main goal is to explore the role of nominal exchange rate regimes and financial crises in explaining the RER volatility. To that end, we employ two...

We develop a genetic algorithm that is able to find the optimal sequence of exchange rates that maximizes arbitrage profits with more than three currencies, being both the triangular arbitrage and the direct exchange rate two special cases of the proposed algorithm. Applying the algorithm to the...