Capital flight may undermine economic growth and the effectiveness of debt relief and foreign aid. This paper is the first attempt to test whether unsound macroeconomic policies or weak institutions lead to capital flight using panel data for a large set of developing emerging market and...

Using panel data for a large number of countries, we find that economic contractions are not followed by offsetting fast recoveries. Trend output lost is not regained, on average. Wars, crises, and other negative shocks lead to absolute divergence and lower long-run growth, whereas we find...

One of the most significant recent developments in world trade has been the entry of China into the World Trade Organization (WTO). This paper examines the implications of China`s WTO accession for India`s trade using both econometrics and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The paper...

All types of recessions, on average, not just those associated with financial and political crises (as in Cerra and Saxena, AER 2008), lead to permanent output losses. These findings have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. A new paradigm of the business cycle needs to account for...

Using panel data for a large number of countries, we find that economic contractions are not followed by offsetting fast recoveries. Trend output lost is not regained, on average. Wars, crises, and other negative shocks lead to absolute divergence and lower long-run growth, whereas we find...

Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as 'hysteresis,' argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and...