The rational expectations hypothesis for survey and model-based inflation forecasts − from the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the Greenbook respectively − is examined by properly taking into account the persistence characteristics of the data. The finding of near-unit-root effects in...

In this note, a class of nonlinear dynamic models under rational expectations is studied. A particular solution is found using a model reference adaptive technique via an extended Kalman filtering algorithm, for which initial conditions knowledge only is required.

The Banco Central de Costa Rica (BCCR) is currently transitioning to an InflationTargeting (IT) regime. In such context, it is relevant for the monetary authority tocharacterize in the most complete way possible the inflation expectations of thepopulation, both in the particular elements of the...

Purpose – Expectations of future market conditions are acknowledged to be crucial for the development decision and hence for shaping the built environment. The purpose of this paper is to study the central London office market from 1987 to 2009 and test for evidence of rational, adaptive and...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the implications of asymmetric information for price evolution and investor behavior under a rational expectations framework. Design/methodology/approach – The author presents a simple asymmetric information‐based asset‐pricing model to...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the implications of overconfidence for information acquisition and market efficiency. Design/methodology/approach – The paper studies a model of a competitive market with both overconfident and rational traders endogenously acquiring costly...

Purpose – In an introductory finance course, business school students often report difficulty in dealing with several variables and regression equations in testing the forward market efficiency and its relevant hypotheses: forward rate unbiasedness, rational expectations, risk neutrality and...