This paper investigates the effects of dynamic capital market conditions in a general equilibrium model, employing a process of switching steady-state levels of the volatility of market conditions (SS-uncertainty). Decision-makers predict SS-uncertainty regimes using past fundamental shocks, but...

In this paper, we examine how economic shocks affect the distribution of household inflation expectations. We show that the dynamics of households' expected inflation distributions are driven by three distinctive functional shocks, which influence the expected inflation distribution through...

We investigate U.S. monetary and fiscal policy regime interactions in a model, where regimes are determined by latent autoregressive policy factors with endogenous feedback. Policy regimes interact strongly: shocks that switch one policy from active to passive tend to induce the other policy to...

Using a novel approach to model regime switching with dynamic feedback and inter-actions, we extract latent mean and volatility factors in oil price changes. We illustrate how the volatility factor constitutes a useful measure of oil market risk (or oil price uncertainty) for policy makers and...