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intra-day basis, has spurred numerous theoretical advances in the areas of volatility/risk estimation and modeling. In this … paper, we discuss key such advances, beginning with a survey of numerous nonparametric estimators of integrated volatility … useful information for modeling variables such as returns and volatility in another sector. As an illustration of the methods …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012913503
This paper proposes a novel decomposition of realized volatility (RV) into moderate and extreme realized volatility … estimates. These estimates behave like long and short term components of volatility, and are very different from either realized … semi-variance or the continuous and jump components of volatility. Within the standard linear HAR framework, a forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012864091
degree of volatility risk in stock and index returns, where we characterize volatility risk by the extent to which … forecasting errors in realized volatility are substantive. Even though returns standardized by ex post quadratic variation … distribution of returns. Carefully modeling this volatility risk is fundamental. We propose a dually asymmetric realized volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013149893
proxy for σ2t. We show that some commonly used criteria for evaluation of volatility models, may induce a different … provide an additional argument for using intra-day data to approximate σ2t , such as realized volatility. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010318932
The paper presents an incomplete competition model (ICM), where inflation is determined jointly with unit labour cost growth. The ICM is estimated on data for the Euro area and evaluated against existing models, i.e. the implicit inflation equation of the Area Wide model (AWM) - cf. Fagan, Henry...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009636545
We propose a general class of Markov-switching-ARFIMA processes in order to combine strands of long memory and Markov-switching literature. Although the coverage of this class of models is broad, we show that these models can be easily estimated with the DLV algorithm proposed. This algorithm...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003633683
In this article we derive conditions which ensure the non-negativity of the conditional variance in the Hyperbolic GARCH(p; d; q) (HYGARCH) model of Davidson (2004). The conditions are necessary and sufficient for p < 2 and sufficient for p > 2 and emerge as natural extensions of the inequality constraints derived in...</2>
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003762825
; extreme value theory ; bootstrapping …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003891679
extreme value theory. The out-of-sample forecasting performance of our methods turns out to be clearly superior to different … management ; extreme value theory ; monotonization ; CAViaR …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003952845
Since the adoption of inflation targeting, the seasonal appears to be the component that explains the major part of inflation’s total variation in Mexico. In this context, we study the performance of seasonal time series models to forecast short-run inflation. Using multi-horizon evaluation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003857101