On the basis of regression of consumption on output, we develop a new approach to identify a structural break in business cycles. Using this approach, we find that a structural change in the trend and cycle in Korea occurred in 1993 and that the business cycles in Korea started to show the...

This paper addresses the link between shocks to productivity trend growth and long-run consumption risk in a production economy model with recursive utility. Quantifying trend growth shocks, I find that persistent fluctuations in trend growth are the key driver of sizable long-run consumption...

We develop a new identification approach based on the regression of consumption on output to identify a structural break in business cycles. Using this method, we find that a structural change in the trend and cycle in Korea occurred in 1993. To explain these, we estimate the parameters of the...

Korean Abstract: 본고는 비관측 요인 모형을 통해 1981년부터 2019년까지 한국의 1인당 실질 GDP 추세 성장률을 추정하고 성장회계를 통해 추세 성장률 하락의 원인을 분석한다. 1인당 실질 GDP 추세 성장률은 외환위기를 극복하던...